Recently, photovoltaic glass has suddenly ushered in the sales season.
Since the "531 New Deal" in 2018, domestic market demand has dropped significantly. By the end of last year, the photovoltaic market began to heat up.
Due to strong market demand, the supply of photovoltaic glass has been in short supply, and its price has been rising.
In terms of price, the average selling price of photovoltaic glass in November last year was about 20 yuan / square meter, and by August this year, its average selling price had risen to 26 yuan / square meter, an increase of more than 30%.
With the implementation of photovoltaic installations in the second half of 2019, the photovoltaic season is coming, and the future market demand for photovoltaic glass is expected.
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Short-term demand turning point is coming
The agency expects that the domestic PV installed capacity will be 21.5-27.5GW in the fourth quarter of 2019, an increase of 270%-300% from the previous quarter. At present, the project is intensively carried out in China, and it is estimated that large-scale construction will begin in the first half of September. At the same time, the European summer holiday is over, and overseas demand will start simultaneously in September. In the fourth quarter, domestic and international demand will resonate upwards and the chain will increase significantly. Due to the small supply elasticity, photovoltaic glass has taken the lead in price increases. The current price of PERC solar cell segment has fallen below the cash cost of the old PERC production line, and the price may rebound. In the third quarter, supply and demand of single crystal materials and monocrystalline silicon wafers have been tight. In the fourth quarter, supply and demand will be intensified, and the profitability of each link will increase.
Industry is an oligopolistic competition
From the perspective of sub-sector industry attributes, photovoltaic glass is an industrial standard. The yield control, kiln scale, raw material and fuel power cost control are the core competitive factors of the industry. At the same time, the link also has technology, approval, funding, certification and customer barriers. The barriers are relatively high, and the industry technology iteration is relatively slow. The industry will present an oligopolistic competition. In 2018, PV glass CR2 and CR5 are 48%/70%, respectively, up 5% year-on-year.
In terms of market demand, in addition to the impact of the PV industry's inflection point, due to the gradual increase of double glass penetration rate, the demand for photovoltaic glass will increase, and the demand turning point will be strengthened. It is estimated that the global demand for photovoltaic glass will be 7.7 billion square meters in 2019, of which The increase in demand due to vitrification is 62 million square meters.
From the perspective of the construction cycle, there is no supply increase in the short term, and the main expansion will be released in the next year. Photovoltaic glass construction is difficult, and the average production expansion period is 18 months. Due to the existence of the expansion period, short-term industry supply is difficult to increase. At present, the leading production expansion is steadily advanced, and the double-headed project plans to expand production of 8 photovoltaic glass production lines. Since 2020, it has been put into production.
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